Essays on policy reforms in trade, investment and taxation

This thesis consists of three essays on trade, investment, and taxation that are unified by their policy relevance to developing countries. Following an introductory chapter on policy reform, the first essay revisits the institutional determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) using a comprehensive new data set covering more than 80 countries. It exploits the presence of confirmed zero investment flows between countries to estimate productivity cut-offs of firms that invest abroad profitably. This approach corrects likely biases arising from firm heterogeneity and country selection in a theoretically derived gravity-type model. The analysis finds inward FDI to be highly responsive to cross-country variation in specific institutional provisions, such as arbitration of disputes and legal procedures to establish foreign subsidiaries. The importance of FDI-specific regulations stands out even after controlling for the general quality of institutions. Statutory openness to FDI, however, has no association with actual inflow of investment. The second essay examines cross-national differences in the survival of exports through the lenses of product, industry, and country characteristics. The estimates are derived from a new application of discrete-time models instead of the continuous-time (Cox) models that are standard in trade duration analysis. The examination of exports originating in more than 100 developing countries covering 4000 products over 12 years shows that export flows are much more fragile than suggested by trade theory. Using new measures of product sophistication and export diversification, the paper finds evidence of information and network externalities that aid export survival. Exports concentrated in a few industries or in a narrow range of destination markets exhibit higher rates of death, whereas export concentration within some industries is positively associated with survival, suggesting a synergistic network effect. The probability of export death decreases with proximity from the capital content of products to the national factor endowment, competitive real exchange rate, and bilateral trade preferences. Further, death rates for dynamic subsets of exports like manufactured components and processed food differ from other products, belying the notion that short durations are necessarily a result of poor exporter capabilities. The third essay assesses the revenue implications of coordinated tariff and tax reforms. It is shown for a sample of low-income countries over 25 years that they have had a mixed record of offsetting reductions in trade tax revenue, and that Value-Added Tax (VAT) has, at best, played a limited role. The paper then analyzes the specific case of Nepal, using a unique data set compiled from unpublished customs records of imports, tariffs, and all other taxes levied at the border. It estimates changes to revenue and domestic production associated with two sets of reforms: i) proportional tariff cuts coordinated with a strictly enforced VAT; and ii) proposed tariff cuts under a regional free trade agreement. It is shown that a revenue-neutral tax reform is conditional on the effectiveness with which domestic taxes are enforced. Furthermore, loss of revenue as a result of intra-regional free trade can be minimized through judicious use of Sensitive Lists that still cover "substantially all the trade" as required by Article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

Investing across borders with heterogeneous firms : do FDI-specific regulations matter?

This paper revisits the institutional determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) using a comprehensive new data set on the regulations that govern FDI in more than 80 countries. It exploits the presence of confirmed zero investment flows between countries to estimate productivity cut-offs of firms that invest abroad profitably. This approach corrects likely biases arising from firm heterogeneity and country selection in a theoretically derived gravity-type model. The analysis finds inward FDI to be highly responsive to cross-country variation in specific institutional provisions, such as arbitration of disputes and legal procedures to establish foreign subsidiaries. The importance of FDI-specific provisions stands out even after controlling for the general quality of institutions. Statutory openness to FDI, however, has no association with actual inflow of investment. These results are found to be robust to different specifications.Debt Markets,Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,E-Business

Analyzing trade competitiveness : a diagnostics approach

Trade has proven to be a powerful engine of growth worldwide. But not all countries have benefited equally. Despite much effort to use trade policy to catalyze exports, many developing countries have failed to achieve successful, sustainable export and economic growth. Even with the benefit of preferential market access, many developing country exporters face a broad and diverse set of constraints that limit their potential to compete in export markets. This paper discusses the concept of"competitiveness"with respect to trade and the various dimensions on which trade competitiveness might be assessed. It argues there is a need for a framework by which trade competitiveness can be assessed in a systematic way. Inspired by the"growth diagnostics"approach, it outlines a possible framework for assessing factors that facilitate or constrain trade competitiveness.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,E-Business,Currencies and Exchange Rates

Foreign Direct Investment in Southeast Asia: Is Malaysia Falling Behind?

This paper examines patterns and determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia from a comparative Southeast Asian perspective. There is clear evidence that Malaysia's relative attractiveness for FDI within the region has eroded in recent years; outflow of FDI from Malaysia has consistently surpassed inflow of FDI, a pattern not seen in the other major Southeast Asian countries. The explanation seems to lie with the dualistic investment policy regime and the narrow domestic human capital base. We find no evidence that FDI in Malaysia (or major Southeast Asian countries) is crowded out by an increasing flow of FDI into China. On the contrary, Malaysia is well placed to benefit from a complementary FDI relationship with China as a favoured location of high-end tasks within global production networks

Trade liberalisation and export performance in transition: The case of Georgia

This paper examines export performance in Georgia in the process of transition from central planning to a market-oriented economy. Policy reforms undertaken with the support of the Bretton Woods institutions since the mid-1990s have made Georgia one of the most market-friendly economies among the Commonwealth of Independent States. However, the reforms have so far failed to transform the lopsided export structure inherited from the Soviet era in line with emerging opportunities for global economic integration. The orthodox liberalisation reforms are unlikely to improve export performance unless accompanied by concrete measures to redress supply-side constraints faced by export producers and to sustain their international competitiveness